Traders see 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 18 because medium-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and AEMET indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming, with daytime maxima projected near 38°C. Historical August climatology shows Madrid’s mean daily maximum around 33–35°C, yet recent model runs highlight the potential for 1–2°C above-normal anomalies under the current pattern. Urban heat-island effects and low soil moisture from the ongoing summer further support elevated readings. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible afternoon convection or slight shifts in the subtropical ridge, keeping 37°C and 40°C outcomes in play but at lower implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
38°C 47%
39°C 29%
37°C 17%
40°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
4%
37°C
17%
38°C
47%
39°C
29%
40°C
5%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 47%
39°C 29%
37°C 17%
40°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
$204 KL.
<1%
35°C
$329 KL.
1%
36°C
$268 KL.
4%
37°C
$464 KL.
17%
38°C
$495 KL.
47%
39°C
$767 KL.
29%
40°C
$341 KL.
5%
41°C
$187 KL.
1%
42°C
$29 KL.
<1%
43°C
$191 KL.
<1%
44°C or higher
$599 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 18 because medium-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and AEMET indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming, with daytime maxima projected near 38°C. Historical August climatology shows Madrid’s mean daily maximum around 33–35°C, yet recent model runs highlight the potential for 1–2°C above-normal anomalies under the current pattern. Urban heat-island effects and low soil moisture from the ongoing summer further support elevated readings. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible afternoon convection or slight shifts in the subtropical ridge, keeping 37°C and 40°C outcomes in play but at lower implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$3,873Ngày kết thúc
Aug 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 18 because medium-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and AEMET indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming, with daytime maxima projected near 38°C. Historical August climatology shows Madrid’s mean daily maximum around 33–35°C, yet recent model runs highlight the potential for 1–2°C above-normal anomalies under the current pattern. Urban heat-island effects and low soil moisture from the ongoing summer further support elevated readings. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible afternoon convection or slight shifts in the subtropical ridge, keeping 37°C and 40°C outcomes in play but at lower implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$3,873Ngày kết thúc
Aug 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 18 because medium-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and AEMET indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming, with daytime maxima projected near 38°C. Historical August climatology shows Madrid’s mean daily maximum around 33–35°C, yet recent model runs highlight the potential for 1–2°C above-normal anomalies under the current pattern. Urban heat-island effects and low soil moisture from the ongoing summer further support elevated readings. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible afternoon convection or slight shifts in the subtropical ridge, keeping 37°C and 40°C outcomes in play but at lower implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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