Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and global model runs point to a strengthened Pacific High sustaining above-normal warmth across Honshu, positioning Tokyo's August 16 maximum near the long-term average of 30–31°C. Latest short-range guidance from AccuWeather and timeanddate.com indicates a peak around 31°C under partly cloudy skies with possible passing showers, which could cap the daily high by limiting afternoon insolation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from cloud cover, urban heat-island variability, and any late-day frontal influence, while historical analogs and current steering patterns make excursions above 32°C or below 28°C less likely before the next model update.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
30°C 38%
29°C 36%
28°C 16%
31°C 6%
MỚI
$13,205 KL.
MỚI
$13,205 KL.
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
16%
29°C
36%
30°C
38%
31°C
6%
32°C
3%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 38%
29°C 36%
28°C 16%
31°C 6%
MỚI
$13,205 KL.
MỚI
$13,205 KL.
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
$1,221 KL.
<1%
25°C
$437 KL.
<1%
26°C
$518 KL.
1%
27°C
$1,128 KL.
5%
28°C
$1,004 KL.
16%
29°C
$2,172 KL.
36%
30°C
$2,613 KL.
38%
31°C
$850 KL.
6%
32°C
$1,613 KL.
3%
33°C
$1,304 KL.
2%
34°C or higher
$345 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and global model runs point to a strengthened Pacific High sustaining above-normal warmth across Honshu, positioning Tokyo's August 16 maximum near the long-term average of 30–31°C. Latest short-range guidance from AccuWeather and timeanddate.com indicates a peak around 31°C under partly cloudy skies with possible passing showers, which could cap the daily high by limiting afternoon insolation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from cloud cover, urban heat-island variability, and any late-day frontal influence, while historical analogs and current steering patterns make excursions above 32°C or below 28°C less likely before the next model update.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Khối lượng
$13,205Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and global model runs point to a strengthened Pacific High sustaining above-normal warmth across Honshu, positioning Tokyo's August 16 maximum near the long-term average of 30–31°C. Latest short-range guidance from AccuWeather and timeanddate.com indicates a peak around 31°C under partly cloudy skies with possible passing showers, which could cap the daily high by limiting afternoon insolation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from cloud cover, urban heat-island variability, and any late-day frontal influence, while historical analogs and current steering patterns make excursions above 32°C or below 28°C less likely before the next model update.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$13,205Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and global model runs point to a strengthened Pacific High sustaining above-normal warmth across Honshu, positioning Tokyo's August 16 maximum near the long-term average of 30–31°C. Latest short-range guidance from AccuWeather and timeanddate.com indicates a peak around 31°C under partly cloudy skies with possible passing showers, which could cap the daily high by limiting afternoon insolation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from cloud cover, urban heat-island variability, and any late-day frontal influence, while historical analogs and current steering patterns make excursions above 32°C or below 28°C less likely before the next model update.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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