Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for Miami indicates overnight lows of 79–82°F on August 16, consistent with the subtropical maritime climate where warm Gulf Stream waters and high humidity limit radiative cooling. Persistent easterly flow, possible scattered showers, and the urban heat island effect have kept recent minima in the upper 70s to low 80s, matching the market’s heaviest concentration on 80–83°F bins (71% combined implied probability). No approaching cold front or unusual synoptic cooling is forecast, while El Niño-related shear patterns exert negligible influence on a single-day local temperature. Traders therefore assign only single-digit odds to sub-78°F outcomes, which would require atypical clear-sky radiative losses or northerly advection not supported by current model consensus.