Recent global seismic monitoring by the USGS reveals subdued M5+ activity through mid-August 2026, including a 24-hour period with zero events at or above magnitude 5.0, amid natural week-to-week variability around the long-term average of roughly 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ quakes. Recent major events, such as the M7.7 Indonesia quake and its aftershocks plus the M7.4 Colombia event, may contribute localized sequences, but overall counts remain within historical fluctuations without elevated clustering or critical-state indicators on major faults. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched odds on low versus high bins driven by the absence of reliable short-term forecasts and reliance on real-time catalog updates. Continuous USGS data releases will determine resolution within the one-week window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
≤6 21%
>13 21%
8 14%
9 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
21%
7
10%
8
14%
9
13%
10
12%
11
10%
12
9%
13
7%
>13
21%
≤6 21%
>13 21%
8 14%
9 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
$899 KL.
21%
7
$117 KL.
10%
8
$131 KL.
14%
9
$117 KL.
13%
10
$117 KL.
12%
11
$117 KL.
10%
12
$128 KL.
9%
13
$130 KL.
7%
>13
$495 KL.
21%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismic monitoring by the USGS reveals subdued M5+ activity through mid-August 2026, including a 24-hour period with zero events at or above magnitude 5.0, amid natural week-to-week variability around the long-term average of roughly 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ quakes. Recent major events, such as the M7.7 Indonesia quake and its aftershocks plus the M7.4 Colombia event, may contribute localized sequences, but overall counts remain within historical fluctuations without elevated clustering or critical-state indicators on major faults. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched odds on low versus high bins driven by the absence of reliable short-term forecasts and reliance on real-time catalog updates. Continuous USGS data releases will determine resolution within the one-week window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,252Ngày kết thúc
Aug 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismic monitoring by the USGS reveals subdued M5+ activity through mid-August 2026, including a 24-hour period with zero events at or above magnitude 5.0, amid natural week-to-week variability around the long-term average of roughly 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ quakes. Recent major events, such as the M7.7 Indonesia quake and its aftershocks plus the M7.4 Colombia event, may contribute localized sequences, but overall counts remain within historical fluctuations without elevated clustering or critical-state indicators on major faults. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched odds on low versus high bins driven by the absence of reliable short-term forecasts and reliance on real-time catalog updates. Continuous USGS data releases will determine resolution within the one-week window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$2,252Ngày kết thúc
Aug 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global seismic monitoring by the USGS reveals subdued M5+ activity through mid-August 2026, including a 24-hour period with zero events at or above magnitude 5.0, amid natural week-to-week variability around the long-term average of roughly 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ quakes. Recent major events, such as the M7.7 Indonesia quake and its aftershocks plus the M7.4 Colombia event, may contribute localized sequences, but overall counts remain within historical fluctuations without elevated clustering or critical-state indicators on major faults. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched odds on low versus high bins driven by the absence of reliable short-term forecasts and reliance on real-time catalog updates. Continuous USGS data releases will determine resolution within the one-week window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
43%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
89%
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