Recent forecasts from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 23–24°C for August 15, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at those thresholds and reflecting typical late-summer patterns moderated by urban heat retention. Seasonal outlooks project above-normal temperatures overall, yet short-term model runs show no strong cooling influences such as typhoon passage or enhanced cloud cover that would push minima below 22°C. Historical climatology places average August minimums around 24°C, with trader consensus incorporating this baseline alongside current guidance on humidity and wind patterns that limit radiative cooling. Updated model consensus and official briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
24°C 42%
23°C 24%
25°C 23%
27°C 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 15, 2026
19°C or below
4%
20°C
4%
21°C
3%
22°C
5%
23°C
24%
24°C
42%
25°C
23%
26°C
8%
27°C
8%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 42%
23°C 24%
25°C 23%
27°C 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 15, 2026
19°C or below
$12 KL.
4%
20°C
$12 KL.
4%
21°C
$11 KL.
3%
22°C
$0 KL.
5%
23°C
$40 KL.
24%
24°C
$41 KL.
42%
25°C
$0 KL.
23%
26°C
$0 KL.
8%
27°C
$23 KL.
8%
28°C
$12 KL.
1%
29°C or higher
$12 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 23–24°C for August 15, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at those thresholds and reflecting typical late-summer patterns moderated by urban heat retention. Seasonal outlooks project above-normal temperatures overall, yet short-term model runs show no strong cooling influences such as typhoon passage or enhanced cloud cover that would push minima below 22°C. Historical climatology places average August minimums around 24°C, with trader consensus incorporating this baseline alongside current guidance on humidity and wind patterns that limit radiative cooling. Updated model consensus and official briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Khối lượng
$164Ngày kết thúc
Aug 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 23–24°C for August 15, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at those thresholds and reflecting typical late-summer patterns moderated by urban heat retention. Seasonal outlooks project above-normal temperatures overall, yet short-term model runs show no strong cooling influences such as typhoon passage or enhanced cloud cover that would push minima below 22°C. Historical climatology places average August minimums around 24°C, with trader consensus incorporating this baseline alongside current guidance on humidity and wind patterns that limit radiative cooling. Updated model consensus and official briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$164Ngày kết thúc
Aug 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 23–24°C for August 15, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at those thresholds and reflecting typical late-summer patterns moderated by urban heat retention. Seasonal outlooks project above-normal temperatures overall, yet short-term model runs show no strong cooling influences such as typhoon passage or enhanced cloud cover that would push minima below 22°C. Historical climatology places average August minimums around 24°C, with trader consensus incorporating this baseline alongside current guidance on humidity and wind patterns that limit radiative cooling. Updated model consensus and official briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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