Forecasts from major meteorological agencies converge on a Moscow maximum near 20°C for August 15, 2026, with ensemble model runs showing limited spread between roughly 19–21°C. This positioning reflects weak pressure gradients, variable cloud cover, and modest daytime heating under typical late-summer conditions, consistent with historical August averages around 20–22°C. Official guidance highlights stable steering patterns that suppress stronger warming. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 20°C arises from this consensus backed by real capital at risk. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include unexpected prolonged clear skies boosting insolation or a late model shift revealing localized warming, though current data make these low-probability shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
20°C 99.4%
22°C <1%
21°C <1%
15°C or below <1%
$30,176 KL.
$30,176 KL.
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
99%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 99.4%
22°C <1%
21°C <1%
15°C or below <1%
$30,176 KL.
$30,176 KL.
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
$715 KL.
<1%
16°C
$437 KL.
<1%
17°C
$1,800 KL.
<1%
18°C
$2,231 KL.
<1%
19°C
$12,465 KL.
<1%
20°C
$5,962 KL.
99%
21°C
$3,373 KL.
1%
22°C
$2,032 KL.
1%
23°C
$1,220 KL.
<1%
24°C
$645 KL.
<1%
25°C or higher
$291 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from major meteorological agencies converge on a Moscow maximum near 20°C for August 15, 2026, with ensemble model runs showing limited spread between roughly 19–21°C. This positioning reflects weak pressure gradients, variable cloud cover, and modest daytime heating under typical late-summer conditions, consistent with historical August averages around 20–22°C. Official guidance highlights stable steering patterns that suppress stronger warming. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 20°C arises from this consensus backed by real capital at risk. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include unexpected prolonged clear skies boosting insolation or a late model shift revealing localized warming, though current data make these low-probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$30,176Ngày kết thúc
Aug 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from major meteorological agencies converge on a Moscow maximum near 20°C for August 15, 2026, with ensemble model runs showing limited spread between roughly 19–21°C. This positioning reflects weak pressure gradients, variable cloud cover, and modest daytime heating under typical late-summer conditions, consistent with historical August averages around 20–22°C. Official guidance highlights stable steering patterns that suppress stronger warming. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 20°C arises from this consensus backed by real capital at risk. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include unexpected prolonged clear skies boosting insolation or a late model shift revealing localized warming, though current data make these low-probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$30,176Ngày kết thúc
Aug 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from major meteorological agencies converge on a Moscow maximum near 20°C for August 15, 2026, with ensemble model runs showing limited spread between roughly 19–21°C. This positioning reflects weak pressure gradients, variable cloud cover, and modest daytime heating under typical late-summer conditions, consistent with historical August averages around 20–22°C. Official guidance highlights stable steering patterns that suppress stronger warming. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 20°C arises from this consensus backed by real capital at risk. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include unexpected prolonged clear skies boosting insolation or a late model shift revealing localized warming, though current data make these low-probability shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp