Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 13°C under prevailing westerly flows, yet current model guidance and MetService outlooks favor a mild 14–15°C peak on the 13th due to a persistent ridge of high pressure delivering sunny intervals and reduced mixing. This setup suppresses typical wind-driven cooling and allows brief daytime warming above seasonal norms, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal signal. Forecasters note minimal model spread for maximum temperature, with ensemble members clustering around these values and low risk of a colder southerly change before the 13th. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 15°C and 32.5% on 14°C therefore reflect trader consensus around this stable, mildly elevated forecast rather than any extreme deviation or rapid model shift.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Wellington on August 13?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 13?
15°C 50%
14°C 33%
16°C 11%
13°C 6%
MỚI
$10,810 KL.
MỚI
$10,810 KL.
Aug 13, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
6%
14°C
33%
15°C
50%
16°C
11%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 50%
14°C 33%
16°C 11%
13°C 6%
MỚI
$10,810 KL.
MỚI
$10,810 KL.
Aug 13, 2026
9°C or below
$429 KL.
<1%
10°C
$579 KL.
<1%
11°C
$368 KL.
<1%
12°C
$769 KL.
1%
13°C
$1,384 KL.
6%
14°C
$1,794 KL.
33%
15°C
$1,622 KL.
50%
16°C
$2,186 KL.
11%
17°C
$534 KL.
2%
18°C
$438 KL.
<1%
19°C or higher
$707 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 13°C under prevailing westerly flows, yet current model guidance and MetService outlooks favor a mild 14–15°C peak on the 13th due to a persistent ridge of high pressure delivering sunny intervals and reduced mixing. This setup suppresses typical wind-driven cooling and allows brief daytime warming above seasonal norms, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal signal. Forecasters note minimal model spread for maximum temperature, with ensemble members clustering around these values and low risk of a colder southerly change before the 13th. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 15°C and 32.5% on 14°C therefore reflect trader consensus around this stable, mildly elevated forecast rather than any extreme deviation or rapid model shift.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Khối lượng
$10,810Ngày kết thúc
Aug 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 13°C under prevailing westerly flows, yet current model guidance and MetService outlooks favor a mild 14–15°C peak on the 13th due to a persistent ridge of high pressure delivering sunny intervals and reduced mixing. This setup suppresses typical wind-driven cooling and allows brief daytime warming above seasonal norms, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal signal. Forecasters note minimal model spread for maximum temperature, with ensemble members clustering around these values and low risk of a colder southerly change before the 13th. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 15°C and 32.5% on 14°C therefore reflect trader consensus around this stable, mildly elevated forecast rather than any extreme deviation or rapid model shift.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$10,810Ngày kết thúc
Aug 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington’s August climatology features average daily highs near 13°C under prevailing westerly flows, yet current model guidance and MetService outlooks favor a mild 14–15°C peak on the 13th due to a persistent ridge of high pressure delivering sunny intervals and reduced mixing. This setup suppresses typical wind-driven cooling and allows brief daytime warming above seasonal norms, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal signal. Forecasters note minimal model spread for maximum temperature, with ensemble members clustering around these values and low risk of a colder southerly change before the 13th. The 49.5% market-implied probability on 15°C and 32.5% on 14°C therefore reflect trader consensus around this stable, mildly elevated forecast rather than any extreme deviation or rapid model shift.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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