Mount Etna’s frequent eruptive behavior and sustained activity through early 2026 support the 72% market-implied probability of a VEI 2+ eruption occurring sometime this year. The volcano produced lava flows and Strombolian explosions from the Southeast Crater beginning on Christmas Eve 2025, followed by a flank fissure eruption in the Valle del Bove on January 1 2026 that generated low-altitude flows, and an additional explosive event on March 4. Recent satellite data confirm continued sulfur dioxide emissions into May, while a April study documented magma sourced from depths exceeding 80 km, a rare process that can drive more energetic phases. With Etna’s historical pattern of multiple VEI 1–2 events per year and no return to full quiescence, traders view a moderate-to-strong eruption before year-end as the most probable outcome, though exact timing remains sensitive to evolving monitoring data from INGV.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s frequent eruptive behavior and sustained activity through early 2026 support the 72% market-implied probability of a VEI 2+ eruption occurring sometime this year. The volcano produced lava flows and Strombolian explosions from the Southeast Crater beginning on Christmas Eve 2025, followed by a flank fissure eruption in the Valle del Bove on January 1 2026 that generated low-altitude flows, and an additional explosive event on March 4. Recent satellite data confirm continued sulfur dioxide emissions into May, while a April study documented magma sourced from depths exceeding 80 km, a rare process that can drive more energetic phases. With Etna’s historical pattern of multiple VEI 1–2 events per year and no return to full quiescence, traders view a moderate-to-strong eruption before year-end as the most probable outcome, though exact timing remains sensitive to evolving monitoring data from INGV.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Thị trường mở: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$16Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s frequent eruptive behavior and sustained activity through early 2026 support the 72% market-implied probability of a VEI 2+ eruption occurring sometime this year. The volcano produced lava flows and Strombolian explosions from the Southeast Crater beginning on Christmas Eve 2025, followed by a flank fissure eruption in the Valle del Bove on January 1 2026 that generated low-altitude flows, and an additional explosive event on March 4. Recent satellite data confirm continued sulfur dioxide emissions into May, while a April study documented magma sourced from depths exceeding 80 km, a rare process that can drive more energetic phases. With Etna’s historical pattern of multiple VEI 1–2 events per year and no return to full quiescence, traders view a moderate-to-strong eruption before year-end as the most probable outcome, though exact timing remains sensitive to evolving monitoring data from INGV.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Khối lượng
$16Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna’s frequent eruptive behavior and sustained activity through early 2026 support the 72% market-implied probability of a VEI 2+ eruption occurring sometime this year. The volcano produced lava flows and Strombolian explosions from the Southeast Crater beginning on Christmas Eve 2025, followed by a flank fissure eruption in the Valle del Bove on January 1 2026 that generated low-altitude flows, and an additional explosive event on March 4. Recent satellite data confirm continued sulfur dioxide emissions into May, while a April study documented magma sourced from depths exceeding 80 km, a rare process that can drive more energetic phases. With Etna’s historical pattern of multiple VEI 1–2 events per year and no return to full quiescence, traders view a moderate-to-strong eruption before year-end as the most probable outcome, though exact timing remains sensitive to evolving monitoring data from INGV.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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