NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows zero potential impacts for 2026, with no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision courses capable of releasing 100 kilotons (kt) of airburst energy, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied probability for "No." Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey have detected numerous safe close approaches this year, including the upcoming May 18 pass of 50-100 foot asteroid 2026 JH2 at 56,700 miles, reinforcing trader confidence amid half the year elapsed without incident. Historical data indicates such events—like the 440kt Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013—occur roughly once per decade. Realistic challenges include a late-detected small NEO under 30 meters evading pre-entry observation or an entirely undetected bolide, though advancing infrared capabilities via NEO Surveyor mitigate risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows zero potential impacts for 2026, with no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision courses capable of releasing 100 kilotons (kt) of airburst energy, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied probability for "No." Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey have detected numerous safe close approaches this year, including the upcoming May 18 pass of 50-100 foot asteroid 2026 JH2 at 56,700 miles, reinforcing trader confidence amid half the year elapsed without incident. Historical data indicates such events—like the 440kt Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013—occur roughly once per decade. Realistic challenges include a late-detected small NEO under 30 meters evading pre-entry observation or an entirely undetected bolide, though advancing infrared capabilities via NEO Surveyor mitigate risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Thị trường mở: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,235Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows zero potential impacts for 2026, with no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision courses capable of releasing 100 kilotons (kt) of airburst energy, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied probability for "No." Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey have detected numerous safe close approaches this year, including the upcoming May 18 pass of 50-100 foot asteroid 2026 JH2 at 56,700 miles, reinforcing trader confidence amid half the year elapsed without incident. Historical data indicates such events—like the 440kt Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013—occur roughly once per decade. Realistic challenges include a late-detected small NEO under 30 meters evading pre-entry observation or an entirely undetected bolide, though advancing infrared capabilities via NEO Surveyor mitigate risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Khối lượng
$7,235Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows zero potential impacts for 2026, with no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision courses capable of releasing 100 kilotons (kt) of airburst energy, anchoring the 93.8% market-implied probability for "No." Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey have detected numerous safe close approaches this year, including the upcoming May 18 pass of 50-100 foot asteroid 2026 JH2 at 56,700 miles, reinforcing trader confidence amid half the year elapsed without incident. Historical data indicates such events—like the 440kt Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013—occur roughly once per decade. Realistic challenges include a late-detected small NEO under 30 meters evading pre-entry observation or an entirely undetected bolide, though advancing infrared capabilities via NEO Surveyor mitigate risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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