The International Astronomical Union’s 2006 definition, requiring a body to orbit the Sun, achieve hydrostatic equilibrium, and clear its orbital neighborhood of debris, firmly places Pluto in the dwarf-planet category, and no IAU resolution or general assembly is scheduled before June 30. Recent public statements from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman favoring reconsideration have sparked renewed discussion, yet they remain preliminary internal papers without binding authority or an expedited review timeline. Historical precedent shows that altering planetary taxonomy involves years of committee work, member votes, and consensus-building across the global astronomical community, rendering any reversal by the market’s close statistically remote. Traders therefore assign a 93 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of imminent procedural triggers while acknowledging that an unforeseen IAU emergency vote could theoretically intervene.