**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 98.5% implied probability** because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and global surveys have identified no tracked near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a ≥1-megaton airburst in 2026. Historical flux models place such events—roughly twice the ~0.44–0.5 Mt Chelyabinsk 2013 airburst—on century-scale recurrence intervals, with annual probabilities well below 2%. Ongoing detections of smaller bolides confirm comprehensive sensor coverage, and no qualifying energy release has occurred through mid-October. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an undetected meter-class object airbursting over a remote ocean, though expanded infrasound, satellite, and ground networks continue to narrow this residual uncertainty ahead of year-end resolution via the NASA JPL Fireball repository.