Recent observational data indicate that May 2026 is tracking among the warmest months on record, with early-month Northern Hemisphere temperatures reaching an all-time high for the date amid developing El Niño conditions and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. This positions the month as highly likely to rank second behind 2024—the current benchmark—while the probability of exceeding that peak remains lower due to moderating sea-surface temperature patterns and model consensus showing only modest intensification potential through the remainder of the month. Historical analogs from strong El Niño years further support this ranking, with upcoming Copernicus and NOAA updates expected to refine the final anomaly relative to pre-industrial baselines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 27%
3rd hottest 5.3%
4th or lower 1.0%
$104,822 KL.
$104,822 KL.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
27%
2nd hottest
67%
3rd hottest
5%
4th or lower
1%
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 27%
3rd hottest 5.3%
4th or lower 1.0%
$104,822 KL.
$104,822 KL.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
$11,825 KL.
27%
2nd hottest
$3,384 KL.
67%
3rd hottest
$39,537 KL.
5%
4th or lower
$50,077 KL.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data indicate that May 2026 is tracking among the warmest months on record, with early-month Northern Hemisphere temperatures reaching an all-time high for the date amid developing El Niño conditions and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. This positions the month as highly likely to rank second behind 2024—the current benchmark—while the probability of exceeding that peak remains lower due to moderating sea-surface temperature patterns and model consensus showing only modest intensification potential through the remainder of the month. Historical analogs from strong El Niño years further support this ranking, with upcoming Copernicus and NOAA updates expected to refine the final anomaly relative to pre-industrial baselines.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$104,822Ngày kết thúc
Jun 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data indicate that May 2026 is tracking among the warmest months on record, with early-month Northern Hemisphere temperatures reaching an all-time high for the date amid developing El Niño conditions and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. This positions the month as highly likely to rank second behind 2024—the current benchmark—while the probability of exceeding that peak remains lower due to moderating sea-surface temperature patterns and model consensus showing only modest intensification potential through the remainder of the month. Historical analogs from strong El Niño years further support this ranking, with upcoming Copernicus and NOAA updates expected to refine the final anomaly relative to pre-industrial baselines.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Khối lượng
$104,822Ngày kết thúc
Jun 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data indicate that May 2026 is tracking among the warmest months on record, with early-month Northern Hemisphere temperatures reaching an all-time high for the date amid developing El Niño conditions and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. This positions the month as highly likely to rank second behind 2024—the current benchmark—while the probability of exceeding that peak remains lower due to moderating sea-surface temperature patterns and model consensus showing only modest intensification potential through the remainder of the month. Historical analogs from strong El Niño years further support this ranking, with upcoming Copernicus and NOAA updates expected to refine the final anomaly relative to pre-industrial baselines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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