Persistent global warming combined with elevated temperatures through early 2026 has positioned May 1–3 near the top of historical daily records, driving the market-implied 67% probability for second-hottest. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show 2026 on track for the second-warmest year overall, with March and April anomalies already ranking among the highest on record amid a developing El Niño phase that amplifies heat. This background trend, rather than isolated daily extremes, underpins trader consensus while leaving room for first-hottest if recent model runs confirm even stronger anomalies. Official daily global temperature releases from agencies like NOAA will provide the definitive resolution criteria in coming weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 27%
3rd hottest 5.1%
4th or lower 1.0%
$104,835 KL.
$104,835 KL.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
27%
2nd hottest
67%
3rd hottest
5%
4th or lower
1%
2nd hottest 67%
1st hottest 27%
3rd hottest 5.1%
4th or lower 1.0%
$104,835 KL.
$104,835 KL.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
$11,838 KL.
27%
2nd hottest
$3,384 KL.
67%
3rd hottest
$39,537 KL.
5%
4th or lower
$50,077 KL.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Persistent global warming combined with elevated temperatures through early 2026 has positioned May 1–3 near the top of historical daily records, driving the market-implied 67% probability for second-hottest. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show 2026 on track for the second-warmest year overall, with March and April anomalies already ranking among the highest on record amid a developing El Niño phase that amplifies heat. This background trend, rather than isolated daily extremes, underpins trader consensus while leaving room for first-hottest if recent model runs confirm even stronger anomalies. Official daily global temperature releases from agencies like NOAA will provide the definitive resolution criteria in coming weeks.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$104,835Ngày kết thúc
Jun 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Persistent global warming combined with elevated temperatures through early 2026 has positioned May 1–3 near the top of historical daily records, driving the market-implied 67% probability for second-hottest. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show 2026 on track for the second-warmest year overall, with March and April anomalies already ranking among the highest on record amid a developing El Niño phase that amplifies heat. This background trend, rather than isolated daily extremes, underpins trader consensus while leaving room for first-hottest if recent model runs confirm even stronger anomalies. Official daily global temperature releases from agencies like NOAA will provide the definitive resolution criteria in coming weeks.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Khối lượng
$104,835Ngày kết thúc
Jun 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent global warming combined with elevated temperatures through early 2026 has positioned May 1–3 near the top of historical daily records, driving the market-implied 67% probability for second-hottest. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show 2026 on track for the second-warmest year overall, with March and April anomalies already ranking among the highest on record amid a developing El Niño phase that amplifies heat. This background trend, rather than isolated daily extremes, underpins trader consensus while leaving room for first-hottest if recent model runs confirm even stronger anomalies. Official daily global temperature releases from agencies like NOAA will provide the definitive resolution criteria in coming weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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