Mailza Assis (PP) and Alan Rick (Republicanos) head into the October 25 runoff after Mailza fell 0.24 points short of an outright first-round win on October 4, taking 49.76% to Rick’s 32.27%. Pre-runoff surveys from Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and others showed the pair in technical ties or narrow leads within margins of error, reflecting divided voter preferences across Acre’s municipalities. Mailza dominated 19 of 22 cities while Rick carried three strongholds, yet the roughly 10% won by eliminated candidate Tião Bocalom (PSDB) and undecided or non-voting blocs create room for shifts. With both contenders drawing from overlapping conservative-leaning electorates and no major late developments reported, traders price a wide range of victory margins as plausible.