Recent US Drought Monitor data for the period ending October 6, 2026, show approximately 27% of soybean production areas in moderate or worse drought (D1+), aligning with the market's dominant 25-34% outcome. This reflects persistent dryness in key Plains and Delta regions, only partially offset by late-September and early-October precipitation from storm remnants that improved conditions in parts of the Southern Plains, Southwest, and Southeast. Soybean harvest progress remains behind average amid variable soil moisture, with official USDA crop condition ratings indicating stable but regionally stressed acreage. New model runs or additional rainfall before the next monitoring update could shift the percentage outside this range if they expand or contract affected areas significantly.