Recent polling has shown Democrat Mary Peltola holding a consistent lead over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in head-to-head matchups for the 2026 Alaska Senate race, with margins of five to seven points in surveys from January through April. Peltola’s strong fundraising haul, which outpaced Sullivan’s by a wide margin in the first quarter, has supported her positioning as the frontrunner among traders. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and her prior success winning statewide office as a Democrat have further bolstered expectations of a competitive general-election outcome on November 3. Sullivan’s incumbency and the state’s Republican lean keep his implied probability above 35 percent, though no major campaign events or endorsements since the polls closed have shifted the balance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAlaska Senate Election Winner
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola 62%
Dan Sullivan 40%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$324,073 KL.
$324,073 KL.
Mary Peltola
62%
Dan Sullivan
40%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Ann Diener
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
Mary Peltola 62%
Dan Sullivan 40%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$324,073 KL.
$324,073 KL.
Mary Peltola
62%
Dan Sullivan
40%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Ann Diener
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling has shown Democrat Mary Peltola holding a consistent lead over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in head-to-head matchups for the 2026 Alaska Senate race, with margins of five to seven points in surveys from January through April. Peltola’s strong fundraising haul, which outpaced Sullivan’s by a wide margin in the first quarter, has supported her positioning as the frontrunner among traders. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and her prior success winning statewide office as a Democrat have further bolstered expectations of a competitive general-election outcome on November 3. Sullivan’s incumbency and the state’s Republican lean keep his implied probability above 35 percent, though no major campaign events or endorsements since the polls closed have shifted the balance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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