The ongoing federal criminal investigation into the Alaska Senate race centers on allegations that Democratic operatives and the Mary Peltola campaign recruited Daniel J. Sullivan as a potential spoiler candidate to confuse voters and siphon support from incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. A New York Times report in late October 2026 prompted the Justice Department to issue dozens of grand jury subpoenas targeting Democratic figures and examine possible conspiracy or civil rights violations. U.S. Attorney Michael Heyman confirmed the probe had been active for months, with additional FBI outreach to donors, but no charges have been filed against Sullivan himself. A related civil lawsuit seeking to segregate ballots was dismissed on procedural grounds in early November 2026. With the election resolved and the probe focused on recruitment efforts rather than the candidate's actions, traders assign an 88% implied probability that Daniel J. Sullivan will not face charges by the January 31 deadline.