Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges in the Southern District of New York following his January 2026 capture by American forces in Caracas. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty, with a trial scheduled for June 2027. Defense motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity grounds and other procedural challenges are set for November 2026 argument, while Argentina has separately sought extradition on crimes-against-humanity allegations. These factors, combined with the lengthy pretrial detention already underway at the Metropolitan Detention Center and uncertainty over conviction or sentencing outcomes, underpin trader consensus favoring no prison time as the leading resolution while assigning meaningful probability to extended sentences if the case proceeds to verdict.