Market-implied odds heavily favor a 25 basis point hike in the ECB deposit facility rate to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting trader consensus on persistent upside risks to inflation from the Middle East energy price shock. Eurozone HICP inflation climbed to 3.0% in April, its highest level since late 2023, prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady at its April 30 meeting while explicitly debating and signaling readiness for tightening unless geopolitical conditions ease sharply. Recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys of economists show 85% now anticipate the June move, aligning closely with these odds, though tempered by subdued Q1 GDP growth and limited evidence of second-round effects. Key upcoming data releases on May inflation and the June 11 policy decision will shape final positioning ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật25 bps Increase 85%
No change 13.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,352 KL.
$275,352 KL.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
14%
25 bps Increase
85%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 85%
No change 13.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,352 KL.
$275,352 KL.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$54,094 KL.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$43,932 KL.
<1%
No change
$52,061 KL.
14%
25 bps Increase
$72,056 KL.
85%
50+ bps increase
$53,209 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Market-implied odds heavily favor a 25 basis point hike in the ECB deposit facility rate to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting trader consensus on persistent upside risks to inflation from the Middle East energy price shock. Eurozone HICP inflation climbed to 3.0% in April, its highest level since late 2023, prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady at its April 30 meeting while explicitly debating and signaling readiness for tightening unless geopolitical conditions ease sharply. Recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys of economists show 85% now anticipate the June move, aligning closely with these odds, though tempered by subdued Q1 GDP growth and limited evidence of second-round effects. Key upcoming data releases on May inflation and the June 11 policy decision will shape final positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$275,352Ngày kết thúc
Jun 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Market-implied odds heavily favor a 25 basis point hike in the ECB deposit facility rate to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting trader consensus on persistent upside risks to inflation from the Middle East energy price shock. Eurozone HICP inflation climbed to 3.0% in April, its highest level since late 2023, prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady at its April 30 meeting while explicitly debating and signaling readiness for tightening unless geopolitical conditions ease sharply. Recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys of economists show 85% now anticipate the June move, aligning closely with these odds, though tempered by subdued Q1 GDP growth and limited evidence of second-round effects. Key upcoming data releases on May inflation and the June 11 policy decision will shape final positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Khối lượng
$275,352Ngày kết thúc
Jun 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds heavily favor a 25 basis point hike in the ECB deposit facility rate to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting trader consensus on persistent upside risks to inflation from the Middle East energy price shock. Eurozone HICP inflation climbed to 3.0% in April, its highest level since late 2023, prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady at its April 30 meeting while explicitly debating and signaling readiness for tightening unless geopolitical conditions ease sharply. Recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys of economists show 85% now anticipate the June move, aligning closely with these odds, though tempered by subdued Q1 GDP growth and limited evidence of second-round effects. Key upcoming data releases on May inflation and the June 11 policy decision will shape final positioning ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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