Finland's entry "Liekinheitin," performed by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen, anchors the 73.5% implied probability for topping the first semi-final, thanks to its overall frontrunner status, high-energy mashup of anguished vocals and fiery violin, and dominant betting odds heading into the May 12 Vienna show. Israel sits at 14% after qualifying alongside Finland despite five countries boycotting over its participation, reflecting trader caution around geopolitical factors yet acknowledging its strong staging. Greece's 6.5% share draws from Akylas' "Ferto" and solid precursor momentum, while lower probabilities for Croatia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, and Serbia align with weaker critical reception and historical semi-final voting patterns that reward standout theatrical entries. The May 16 grand final offers no further catalyst for this market, as semi-final jury and public votes already locked in the outcome.