Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Cape Town on July 5?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 5?
19°C 46%
18°C 27%
20°C 19%
17°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 5, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
5%
18°C
27%
19°C
46%
20°C
19%
21°C
4%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
1%
19°C 46%
18°C 27%
20°C 19%
17°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 5, 2026
13°C or below
$31 KL.
<1%
14°C
$47 KL.
<1%
15°C
$23 KL.
1%
16°C
$9 KL.
3%
17°C
$75 KL.
5%
18°C
$87 KL.
27%
19°C
$1,670 KL.
46%
20°C
$97 KL.
19%
21°C
$42 KL.
4%
22°C
$45 KL.
1%
23°C or higher
$59 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,185Ngày kết thúc
Jul 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$2,185Ngày kết thúc
Jul 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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