Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Dallas on September 10 centers on a high near 99–100 °F under persistent southerly flow and clear to partly cloudy skies, positioning the 98–99 °F outcome as the market leader. Strong high pressure promotes subsidence and light winds that limit mixing while allowing strong solar heating of an already above-normal air mass; recent days have seen actual highs of 100–102 °F, reinforcing trader expectations for continued warmth. Dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s will elevate heat indices but have limited direct impact on the dry-bulb maximum used for resolution. Minor model spread and possible afternoon cloud increases introduce modest uncertainty around the exact peak, keeping secondary bins like 96–97 °F and 100–101 °F active but lower-probability.