Recent Met Office forecasts and supporting model runs project a daytime maximum of 21°C in London on October 2 under stable high pressure, light southwesterly winds, and mostly clear or sunny conditions with negligible precipitation risk. This places 21°C as the consensus outcome, consistent with the market’s 54.5% implied probability, while the 26% share for 22°C and 18.5% for 20°C reflect minor ensemble spread in afternoon peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. The expected high sits well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 17.8°C, driven by a persistent warm anomaly and calm steering flow that limits cloud cover and cooling. Traders are monitoring the next UKMO and ECMWF updates for any late shifts in wind direction or low-cloud development that could trim or boost the peak by 1°C.