Forecast models and observational data from monitoring agencies indicate Chengdu will reach a daily high of 27°C on October 1 under stable high-pressure conditions and light winds limiting mixing. This aligns with late-September warming trends across the Sichuan Basin, where surface temperatures have exceeded seasonal baselines by 2–4°C amid reduced cloud cover. Traders assign near-certainty to 27°C because alternative thresholds like 22°C or 28°C lack support from ensemble runs showing minimal deviation. Resolution hinges on official maximum readings; an unexpected cold front or measurement revision at the primary station could alter the outcome, though current guidance shows low probability of such shifts before close of day.