Latest National Weather Service and ensemble guidance for Miami on July 31 points to a high near 92–94°F beneath a persistent subtropical ridge, with typical July humidity fueling scattered afternoon thunderstorms that often limit peak readings. This forecast consensus underpins the market’s leading 94–95°F outcome at 45% implied probability, followed by 92–93°F at 20%, as traders weigh modest warming potential against convective capping. Historical July averages hover near 89–91°F, so current model runs show slightly above-normal conditions without extreme heat signals. Updated short-range forecasts and any shifts in ridge strength or storm timing ahead of the daily maximum will be the key variables influencing final resolution.