Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Paris on July 4?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 4?
30°C 37%
29°C 31%
31°C 22%
28°C 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 4, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
9%
29°C
31%
30°C
37%
31°C
22%
32°C
3%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 37%
29°C 31%
31°C 22%
28°C 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 4, 2026
25°C or below
$205 KL.
<1%
26°C
$216 KL.
1%
27°C
$307 KL.
1%
28°C
$742 KL.
9%
29°C
$2,112 KL.
31%
30°C
$442 KL.
37%
31°C
$791 KL.
22%
32°C
$180 KL.
3%
33°C
$210 KL.
<1%
34°C
$259 KL.
<1%
35°C or higher
$405 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 AM ET
Khối lượng
$5,871Ngày kết thúc
Jul 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$5,871Ngày kết thúc
Jul 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp