Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers indicate a narrow range of peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 4, with model consensus centered on 33–34°C as the most probable outcome. This positioning reflects subtle differences in simulated daytime heating under a strengthening high-pressure ridge, where minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and low-level wind advection can shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Limited ensemble spread around these values underscores the challenge of resolving exact insolation and mixing processes just 48 hours ahead, while cooler or warmer outliers remain low-probability given current synoptic stability. Updated model runs expected over the next day will likely refine this trader-implied distribution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 4?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 4?
33°C 32%
34°C 23%
35°C 23%
32°C 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 4, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
10%
32°C
14%
33°C
32%
34°C
30%
35°C
23%
36°C or higher
4%
33°C 32%
34°C 23%
35°C 23%
32°C 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 4, 2026
26°C or below
$0 KL.
<1%
27°C
$0 KL.
<1%
28°C
$10 KL.
<1%
29°C
$10 KL.
<1%
30°C
$20 KL.
2%
31°C
$6 KL.
10%
32°C
$10 KL.
14%
33°C
$13 KL.
32%
34°C
$38 KL.
30%
35°C
$0 KL.
23%
36°C or higher
$5 KL.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers indicate a narrow range of peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 4, with model consensus centered on 33–34°C as the most probable outcome. This positioning reflects subtle differences in simulated daytime heating under a strengthening high-pressure ridge, where minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and low-level wind advection can shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Limited ensemble spread around these values underscores the challenge of resolving exact insolation and mixing processes just 48 hours ahead, while cooler or warmer outliers remain low-probability given current synoptic stability. Updated model runs expected over the next day will likely refine this trader-implied distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Khối lượng
$113Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers indicate a narrow range of peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 4, with model consensus centered on 33–34°C as the most probable outcome. This positioning reflects subtle differences in simulated daytime heating under a strengthening high-pressure ridge, where minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and low-level wind advection can shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Limited ensemble spread around these values underscores the challenge of resolving exact insolation and mixing processes just 48 hours ahead, while cooler or warmer outliers remain low-probability given current synoptic stability. Updated model runs expected over the next day will likely refine this trader-implied distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$113Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers indicate a narrow range of peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 4, with model consensus centered on 33–34°C as the most probable outcome. This positioning reflects subtle differences in simulated daytime heating under a strengthening high-pressure ridge, where minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and low-level wind advection can shift the maximum by 1–2°C. Limited ensemble spread around these values underscores the challenge of resolving exact insolation and mixing processes just 48 hours ahead, while cooler or warmer outliers remain low-probability given current synoptic stability. Updated model runs expected over the next day will likely refine this trader-implied distribution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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