Recent forecast guidance from European models indicates Warsaw will likely see a high-pressure ridge with light northwesterly flow moderating temperatures around 27–28 °C on June 22, supporting the market’s leading 28 °C outcome. Variability stems from subtle differences in model handling of daytime insolation under partly cloudy skies and the exact timing of any weak frontal passage, which could add or subtract 2–3 °C depending on boundary-layer mixing. Historical June maxima in Warsaw average near 23 °C, so current warmth reflects an anomalously warm air mass; traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 27–32 °C bins against remaining model spread and the potential for updated runs before resolution.