Recent May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000—well above consensus estimates near 80,000—have created closely matched trader probabilities across low-to-moderate June outcomes, with 0–50k and 50–100k buckets leading at 44% and 43% implied odds. The resilient labor market, featuring stable 4.3% unemployment and upward revisions, has reduced near-term rate-cut expectations and introduced uncertainty about whether June hiring will moderate toward the sub-100k range or sustain momentum amid persistent inflation pressures. Key swing factors include upcoming economic releases, seasonal adjustments, and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the July report.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0 – 50k 44%
50k – 100k 43%
200k+ 38%
150k – 200k 38%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 3, 2026
<0
11%
0 – 50k
44%
50k – 100k
43%
100k – 150k
37%
150k – 200k
38%
200k+
38%
0 – 50k 44%
50k – 100k 43%
200k+ 38%
150k – 200k 38%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 3, 2026
<0
$51 KL.
11%
0 – 50k
$41 KL.
44%
50k – 100k
$0 KL.
43%
100k – 150k
$40 KL.
37%
150k – 200k
$0 KL.
38%
200k+
$0 KL.
38%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000—well above consensus estimates near 80,000—have created closely matched trader probabilities across low-to-moderate June outcomes, with 0–50k and 50–100k buckets leading at 44% and 43% implied odds. The resilient labor market, featuring stable 4.3% unemployment and upward revisions, has reduced near-term rate-cut expectations and introduced uncertainty about whether June hiring will moderate toward the sub-100k range or sustain momentum amid persistent inflation pressures. Key swing factors include upcoming economic releases, seasonal adjustments, and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the July report.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Thị trường mở: Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Khối lượng
$132Ngày kết thúc
Jul 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000—well above consensus estimates near 80,000—have created closely matched trader probabilities across low-to-moderate June outcomes, with 0–50k and 50–100k buckets leading at 44% and 43% implied odds. The resilient labor market, featuring stable 4.3% unemployment and upward revisions, has reduced near-term rate-cut expectations and introduced uncertainty about whether June hiring will moderate toward the sub-100k range or sustain momentum amid persistent inflation pressures. Key swing factors include upcoming economic releases, seasonal adjustments, and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the July report.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Khối lượng
$132Ngày kết thúc
Jul 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000—well above consensus estimates near 80,000—have created closely matched trader probabilities across low-to-moderate June outcomes, with 0–50k and 50–100k buckets leading at 44% and 43% implied odds. The resilient labor market, featuring stable 4.3% unemployment and upward revisions, has reduced near-term rate-cut expectations and introduced uncertainty about whether June hiring will moderate toward the sub-100k range or sustain momentum amid persistent inflation pressures. Key swing factors include upcoming economic releases, seasonal adjustments, and any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the July report.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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