El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with NOAA confirming onset and models forecasting strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere winter, providing the main catalyst for elevated global surface temperatures. This oceanic warming, combined with the underlying anthropogenic trend that produced recent monthly anomalies near 1.18°C, supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin. Subsurface heat content remains anomalously high, and westerly wind anomalies are expanding, consistent with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño events add several tenths of a degree to global means. Official forecasts from WMO and IRI indicate above-average temperatures nearly worldwide for June–August, while model spreads and the typical lag in El Niño impacts introduce modest uncertainty around exact monthly resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 59%
1.10–1.14ºC 23%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.4%
$10,461 KL.
$10,461 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
23%
1.15–1.19ºC
59%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 59%
1.10–1.14ºC 23%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.4%
$10,461 KL.
$10,461 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$325 KL.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$4,954 KL.
23%
1.15–1.19ºC
$76 KL.
59%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,850 KL.
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,290 KL.
3%
>1.29ºC
$966 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with NOAA confirming onset and models forecasting strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere winter, providing the main catalyst for elevated global surface temperatures. This oceanic warming, combined with the underlying anthropogenic trend that produced recent monthly anomalies near 1.18°C, supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin. Subsurface heat content remains anomalously high, and westerly wind anomalies are expanding, consistent with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño events add several tenths of a degree to global means. Official forecasts from WMO and IRI indicate above-average temperatures nearly worldwide for June–August, while model spreads and the typical lag in El Niño impacts introduce modest uncertainty around exact monthly resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,461Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with NOAA confirming onset and models forecasting strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere winter, providing the main catalyst for elevated global surface temperatures. This oceanic warming, combined with the underlying anthropogenic trend that produced recent monthly anomalies near 1.18°C, supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin. Subsurface heat content remains anomalously high, and westerly wind anomalies are expanding, consistent with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño events add several tenths of a degree to global means. Official forecasts from WMO and IRI indicate above-average temperatures nearly worldwide for June–August, while model spreads and the typical lag in El Niño impacts introduce modest uncertainty around exact monthly resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$10,461Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with NOAA confirming onset and models forecasting strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere winter, providing the main catalyst for elevated global surface temperatures. This oceanic warming, combined with the underlying anthropogenic trend that produced recent monthly anomalies near 1.18°C, supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin. Subsurface heat content remains anomalously high, and westerly wind anomalies are expanding, consistent with historical patterns where moderate-to-strong El Niño events add several tenths of a degree to global means. Official forecasts from WMO and IRI indicate above-average temperatures nearly worldwide for June–August, while model spreads and the typical lag in El Niño impacts introduce modest uncertainty around exact monthly resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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