**Forecast models indicate a transition to cooler northerly flow and light rain on October 3, creating uncertainty in Beijing’s overnight minimum between roughly 6–8 °C.** A weak frontal system and increasing northerly winds are expected to limit daytime warming while enhancing radiative cooling under clearing skies after any early precipitation. Recent runs show surface temperatures bottoming near 11 °C in some guidance but dipping lower in others depending on exact cloud timing and wind speeds, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 6 °C, 7 °C, and 8 °C outcomes. Historical October minima average near 12 °C, so any stronger cold-air advection or clearer skies than currently modeled could push readings toward the lower end of the distribution. Traders are watching the next official Beijing Meteorological Bureau update and fresh global model cycles for refinements in boundary-layer temperature and wind forecasts before the overnight period.