Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate mild overnight conditions over Munich, with minimum temperatures for October 3 most likely falling in the 11–14°C range amid light easterly winds, high pressure, and limited cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. This setup supports the market’s elevated odds on 15°C or higher as the lowest temperature, reflecting trader emphasis on ensemble consensus and historical October baselines where early-month lows rarely dip below 10°C without a strong cold advection event. Short-term model runs show minimal spread in the 48-hour window, though slight revisions in boundary-layer humidity or wind could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C before resolution.