**Recent forecasts from models and the Central Weather Administration indicate that the northeast monsoon is strengthening around October 1, introducing cooler northeasterly flow over northern Taiwan while a 70% chance of thunderstorms adds cloud cover that moderates nighttime radiative cooling.** Current late-September conditions remain warm, with daytime highs near 32–34°C and overnight lows around 22–23°C, consistent with early-October climatology for subtropical Taipei. The near-even market split between ≤20°C (50%) and ≥30°C (49%) reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum: stronger monsoon advection or clearer skies could push the low into the upper teens, whereas lingering warm, humid air or urban heat retention might keep it above 25°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 22°C central tendency, with resolution hinging on the exact timing of frontal passage and precipitation.