Persistent U.S. sanctions and the long-standing economic embargo continue to restrict American companies from entering the Cuban market, reinforced by Cuba’s re-designation as a state sponsor of terrorism and tightened travel and financial restrictions implemented in 2025. Escalating measures in 2026, including a fuel blockade and additional designations targeting regime-linked entities, have deepened economic pressures on Havana without easing bilateral trade barriers. Cuban officials have discussed potential foreign franchises in principle but offered no concrete signals of regulatory changes or licensing that would enable a McDonald’s announcement before year-end. These structural constraints sustain trader consensus around the low likelihood of any such development materializing in the current policy environment.