US-Cuba tensions have intensified under the Trump administration through targeted sanctions on Miguel Díaz-Canel and other Cuban officials for alleged human rights violations tied to past protests, alongside an indictment of former leader Raúl Castro. Díaz-Canel remains actively in power as of October 2026, overseeing economic planning, energy reforms, and diplomatic outreach while publicly rejecting external pressure to step down. No verified reports indicate detention, extradition proceedings, or US custody. Trader sentiment reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities driven by Cuba's internal stability, lack of recent escalatory military or legal actions against the sitting president, and the high threshold for such an outcome amid ongoing bilateral frictions. Upcoming factors include any new US sanctions, diplomatic summits, or Cuban internal shifts before year-end resolution windows.