The Justice Department’s imminent indictment of 94-year-old Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown has heightened U.S.-Cuba tensions under the current administration, yet it supplies no realistic pathway to physical custody. Castro remains in Havana under Cuban government protection, with no extradition treaty, no announced law-enforcement or military operation, and no diplomatic signals of cooperation before the June 30 deadline. Recent public appearances, including a May Day event alongside President Miguel Díaz-Canel, underscore his continued presence on the island. Traders therefore assign the 94.5 percent “No” probability to the absence of any mechanism that could deliver custody in the narrow remaining window, consistent with historical patterns where foreign-leader indictments rarely produce swift extradition or capture absent major shifts in relations or force.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
MỚI
Jun 30, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.The Justice Department’s imminent indictment of 94-year-old Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown has heightened U.S.-Cuba tensions under the current administration, yet it supplies no realistic pathway to physical custody. Castro remains in Havana under Cuban government protection, with no extradition treaty, no announced law-enforcement or military operation, and no diplomatic signals of cooperation before the June 30 deadline. Recent public appearances, including a May Day event alongside President Miguel Díaz-Canel, underscore his continued presence on the island. Traders therefore assign the 94.5 percent “No” probability to the absence of any mechanism that could deliver custody in the narrow remaining window, consistent with historical patterns where foreign-leader indictments rarely produce swift extradition or capture absent major shifts in relations or force.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$136Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.The Justice Department’s imminent indictment of 94-year-old Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown has heightened U.S.-Cuba tensions under the current administration, yet it supplies no realistic pathway to physical custody. Castro remains in Havana under Cuban government protection, with no extradition treaty, no announced law-enforcement or military operation, and no diplomatic signals of cooperation before the June 30 deadline. Recent public appearances, including a May Day event alongside President Miguel Díaz-Canel, underscore his continued presence on the island. Traders therefore assign the 94.5 percent “No” probability to the absence of any mechanism that could deliver custody in the narrow remaining window, consistent with historical patterns where foreign-leader indictments rarely produce swift extradition or capture absent major shifts in relations or force.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$136Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Justice Department’s imminent indictment of 94-year-old Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown has heightened U.S.-Cuba tensions under the current administration, yet it supplies no realistic pathway to physical custody. Castro remains in Havana under Cuban government protection, with no extradition treaty, no announced law-enforcement or military operation, and no diplomatic signals of cooperation before the June 30 deadline. Recent public appearances, including a May Day event alongside President Miguel Díaz-Canel, underscore his continued presence on the island. Traders therefore assign the 94.5 percent “No” probability to the absence of any mechanism that could deliver custody in the narrow remaining window, consistent with historical patterns where foreign-leader indictments rarely produce swift extradition or capture absent major shifts in relations or force.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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