**Recent price action on the Mega Charizard Y ex (ME: Ascended Heroes #294/217) underpins the market’s lean toward “Under.”** As of late August 2026 the raw/near-mint copy trades around $355, roughly 12–15 % below the $405.34 strike, after posting a 39.5 % decline over the prior 90 days and a modest 1–2 % dip in the most recent 30-day window. High liquidity and strong verified sales volume have allowed traders to price in continued softness rather than a sharp rebound. No major near-term catalysts—such as a new set release, prominent grading pop report, or broad Charizard hype wave—are scheduled before September 30 that would reliably lift this specific hyper-rare print. Historical patterns for modern chase cards show that once downward momentum sets in without fresh collector or competitive demand, prices often stabilize or drift lower through the end of a quarter. The 65.5 % implied probability on “Under” therefore reflects trader consensus that the card is more likely to finish September below the strike than to stage an unlikely surge in the final weeks.