Narendra Modi remains firmly entrenched as India's prime minister in his third term, which began after the 2024 general election and extends through the next scheduled polls in 2029. His Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance maintains a working majority in the Lok Sabha, enabling continued governance despite coalition dynamics. Recent developments, including July 2026 student protests over exam integrity that prompted the education minister's resignation, produced no broader instability, no-confidence motions, or credible calls for Modi's exit. Opposition efforts stay fragmented, with no verified reports of health concerns, internal party challenges, or procedural triggers that could force a transition before year-end. Traders price the "No" outcome at 92.8% because institutional continuity, electoral calendar realities, and the absence of acute political catalysts make an abrupt leadership change within the short window to December 31, 2026, highly improbable.