The Trump administration's explicit statements and diplomatic actions have anchored trader expectations against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by the end of 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned Pahlavi's domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President JD Vance has stated that regime change or installing the exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty and omitted any reference to transition plans or opposition figures, with officials sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels. Ongoing protests, divisions among Iranian opposition groups, and the administration's focus on negotiated stability rather than leadership replacement have reinforced the near-certain consensus reflected in current pricing. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal before December 31 remain the main low-probability developments that could still alter the outcome.