The Trump administration’s explicit rejection of regime change and leadership installation has anchored trader consensus at a 95.9% probability against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader by December 31, 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned the exiled opposition figure’s domestic support base inside Iran, while Vice President Vance has stated that installing Pahlavi is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty and refrained from referencing opposition figures or transition plans, with officials consistently sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels. Emphasis on negotiated stability over external leadership replacement, combined with Pahlavi’s limited visibility amid ongoing protests and fragmented opposition, reinforces the high “No” odds. Only a sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal could realistically alter the outcome before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỹ công nhận Reza Pahlavi là lãnh đạo Iran vào năm 2026?
Mỹ công nhận Reza Pahlavi là lãnh đạo Iran vào năm 2026?
Có
4% khả năng
$625,097 KL.
$625,097 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
4% khả năng
$625,097 KL.
$625,097 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration’s explicit rejection of regime change and leadership installation has anchored trader consensus at a 95.9% probability against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader by December 31, 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned the exiled opposition figure’s domestic support base inside Iran, while Vice President Vance has stated that installing Pahlavi is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty and refrained from referencing opposition figures or transition plans, with officials consistently sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels. Emphasis on negotiated stability over external leadership replacement, combined with Pahlavi’s limited visibility amid ongoing protests and fragmented opposition, reinforces the high “No” odds. Only a sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal could realistically alter the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$625,097Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration’s explicit rejection of regime change and leadership installation has anchored trader consensus at a 95.9% probability against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader by December 31, 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned the exiled opposition figure’s domestic support base inside Iran, while Vice President Vance has stated that installing Pahlavi is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty and refrained from referencing opposition figures or transition plans, with officials consistently sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels. Emphasis on negotiated stability over external leadership replacement, combined with Pahlavi’s limited visibility amid ongoing protests and fragmented opposition, reinforces the high “No” odds. Only a sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal could realistically alter the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$625,097Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration’s explicit rejection of regime change and leadership installation has anchored trader consensus at a 95.9% probability against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader by December 31, 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned the exiled opposition figure’s domestic support base inside Iran, while Vice President Vance has stated that installing Pahlavi is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty and refrained from referencing opposition figures or transition plans, with officials consistently sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels. Emphasis on negotiated stability over external leadership replacement, combined with Pahlavi’s limited visibility amid ongoing protests and fragmented opposition, reinforces the high “No” odds. Only a sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal could realistically alter the outcome before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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