Conflicting late-September polls depicting the Vermont gubernatorial race between incumbent Phil Scott and Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo as the tightest in a decade have kept turnout expectations closely contested among traders. One University of New Hampshire survey showed a statistical tie while a Vermont Public poll indicated a 10-point Scott lead, both with substantial undecided voters weeks before the November 3 election. This volatility, combined with strong Democratic enthusiasm and concurrent ballot measures on constitutional amendments, could drive participation higher than in less competitive cycles. Multiple turnout bins between 275K and 350K therefore command similar implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty over how late shifts in voter mobilization and undecideds will affect overall engagement.