The leading 3.5M-3.75M bracket at 89.5% reflects unofficial results from the November 3 Virginia Senate election showing roughly 3.57 million ballots cast in the Warner-Mizusawa contest. This exceeds 2022 midterm turnout by more than 18 percent yet falls well below 2024 presidential levels, driven by modest early in-person voting gains, three statewide constitutional amendments on every ballot, and limited campaign intensity in a safe Democratic seat. Final certification, provisional ballots, and any remaining absentee counts could still adjust the total within the resolution window, though current tallies align tightly with trader consensus.