Google's Gemini models, particularly recent DeepMind releases, have driven the 49.5% implied probability through strong showings on advanced mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as FrontierMath Tier 4 and GPQA Diamond. These results highlight superior performance on graduate-level problems and novel competition math, outpacing rivals in recent evaluations. Anthropic follows at 27.5% due to consistent reasoning capabilities in its Claude series, while OpenAI's 14% share reflects high MATH-500 scores from GPT-5 variants but less dominance on frontier-tier tests. With resolution approaching at end of June, traders are weighing these capability demonstrations against potential last-minute model updates or benchmark refinements across the competitive AI landscape.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGoogle 50%
Anthropic 28%
OpenAI 14%
Z.ai <1%
$195,291 KL.
$195,291 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
50%
Anthropic
28%
OpenAI
14%
Z.ai
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
xAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 50%
Anthropic 28%
OpenAI 14%
Z.ai <1%
$195,291 KL.
$195,291 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$32,291 KL.
50%
Anthropic
$57,062 KL.
28%
OpenAI
$22,370 KL.
14%
Z.ai
$12,156 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$10,356 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$12,025 KL.
<1%
xAI
$11,476 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$6,400 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$2,346 KL.
<1%
Meta
$5,734 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$2,769 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$9,130 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$3,097 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$4,617 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$3,461 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini models, particularly recent DeepMind releases, have driven the 49.5% implied probability through strong showings on advanced mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as FrontierMath Tier 4 and GPQA Diamond. These results highlight superior performance on graduate-level problems and novel competition math, outpacing rivals in recent evaluations. Anthropic follows at 27.5% due to consistent reasoning capabilities in its Claude series, while OpenAI's 14% share reflects high MATH-500 scores from GPT-5 variants but less dominance on frontier-tier tests. With resolution approaching at end of June, traders are weighing these capability demonstrations against potential last-minute model updates or benchmark refinements across the competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Khối lượng
$195,291Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini models, particularly recent DeepMind releases, have driven the 49.5% implied probability through strong showings on advanced mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as FrontierMath Tier 4 and GPQA Diamond. These results highlight superior performance on graduate-level problems and novel competition math, outpacing rivals in recent evaluations. Anthropic follows at 27.5% due to consistent reasoning capabilities in its Claude series, while OpenAI's 14% share reflects high MATH-500 scores from GPT-5 variants but less dominance on frontier-tier tests. With resolution approaching at end of June, traders are weighing these capability demonstrations against potential last-minute model updates or benchmark refinements across the competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$195,291Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Gemini models, particularly recent DeepMind releases, have driven the 49.5% implied probability through strong showings on advanced mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as FrontierMath Tier 4 and GPQA Diamond. These results highlight superior performance on graduate-level problems and novel competition math, outpacing rivals in recent evaluations. Anthropic follows at 27.5% due to consistent reasoning capabilities in its Claude series, while OpenAI's 14% share reflects high MATH-500 scores from GPT-5 variants but less dominance on frontier-tier tests. With resolution approaching at end of June, traders are weighing these capability demonstrations against potential last-minute model updates or benchmark refinements across the competitive AI landscape.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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