Trader consensus heavily favors “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top out around 1505–1510 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 Pro leading after April releases. Anthropic’s 33 % share stems from its rapid cadence—Opus 4.6 in February followed by the April 16 launch of Opus 4.7, which delivered measurable gains in coding and agentic tasks—yet even these incremental advances leave a sizable gap to the 1550 threshold. Google’s 10.5 % reflects steady Gemini 3.1 Pro updates, while OpenAI and xAI trail further behind. With only seven months left and no announced model expected to close the remaining 40–50 points quickly, traders see limited realistic paths to a 1550 score before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNone in 2026 57%
Anthropic 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 KL.
$54,452 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
57%
Anthropic
34%
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 KL.
$54,452 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$10,084 KL.
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 KL.
34%
$7,388 KL.
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 KL.
3%
xAI
$5,414 KL.
2%
Alibaba
$4,750 KL.
1%
Mistral
$3,688 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top out around 1505–1510 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 Pro leading after April releases. Anthropic’s 33 % share stems from its rapid cadence—Opus 4.6 in February followed by the April 16 launch of Opus 4.7, which delivered measurable gains in coding and agentic tasks—yet even these incremental advances leave a sizable gap to the 1550 threshold. Google’s 10.5 % reflects steady Gemini 3.1 Pro updates, while OpenAI and xAI trail further behind. With only seven months left and no announced model expected to close the remaining 40–50 points quickly, traders see limited realistic paths to a 1550 score before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Khối lượng
$54,452Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top out around 1505–1510 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 Pro leading after April releases. Anthropic’s 33 % share stems from its rapid cadence—Opus 4.6 in February followed by the April 16 launch of Opus 4.7, which delivered measurable gains in coding and agentic tasks—yet even these incremental advances leave a sizable gap to the 1550 threshold. Google’s 10.5 % reflects steady Gemini 3.1 Pro updates, while OpenAI and xAI trail further behind. With only seven months left and no announced model expected to close the remaining 40–50 points quickly, traders see limited realistic paths to a 1550 score before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Khối lượng
$54,452Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top out around 1505–1510 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, with Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 Pro leading after April releases. Anthropic’s 33 % share stems from its rapid cadence—Opus 4.6 in February followed by the April 16 launch of Opus 4.7, which delivered measurable gains in coding and agentic tasks—yet even these incremental advances leave a sizable gap to the 1550 threshold. Google’s 10.5 % reflects steady Gemini 3.1 Pro updates, while OpenAI and xAI trail further behind. With only seven months left and no announced model expected to close the remaining 40–50 points quickly, traders see limited realistic paths to a 1550 score before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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