Rapid progress in frontier large language models continues to drive trader sentiment on Arena Score thresholds, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently topping LMArena leaderboards near 1510–1525 ELO as of mid-August 2026. Multiple releases this summer—including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and Google Gemini updates—have delivered incremental gains in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, sustaining the competitive race. Labs are iterating on agentic capabilities and larger context windows, though exact resolution hinges on whether any model crosses the market’s specific ELO target before year-end. Expect further announcements through fall developer conferences and potential surprise drops that could shift the leaderboard before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$142,284 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 1520
61%
↑ 1530
27%
↑ 1540
17%
↑ 1550
12%
↑ 1600
10%
↑ 1650
8%
↑ 1700
3%
$142,284 KL.
↑ 1520
$7,214 KL.
61%
↑ 1530
$7,505 KL.
27%
↑ 1540
$1,337 KL.
17%
↑ 1550
$48,924 KL.
12%
↑ 1600
$23,009 KL.
10%
↑ 1650
$8,600 KL.
8%
↑ 1700
$9,036 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Rapid progress in frontier large language models continues to drive trader sentiment on Arena Score thresholds, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently topping LMArena leaderboards near 1510–1525 ELO as of mid-August 2026. Multiple releases this summer—including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and Google Gemini updates—have delivered incremental gains in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, sustaining the competitive race. Labs are iterating on agentic capabilities and larger context windows, though exact resolution hinges on whether any model crosses the market’s specific ELO target before year-end. Expect further announcements through fall developer conferences and potential surprise drops that could shift the leaderboard before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$142,284Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Rapid progress in frontier large language models continues to drive trader sentiment on Arena Score thresholds, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently topping LMArena leaderboards near 1510–1525 ELO as of mid-August 2026. Multiple releases this summer—including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and Google Gemini updates—have delivered incremental gains in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, sustaining the competitive race. Labs are iterating on agentic capabilities and larger context windows, though exact resolution hinges on whether any model crosses the market’s specific ELO target before year-end. Expect further announcements through fall developer conferences and potential surprise drops that could shift the leaderboard before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$142,284Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rapid progress in frontier large language models continues to drive trader sentiment on Arena Score thresholds, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently topping LMArena leaderboards near 1510–1525 ELO as of mid-August 2026. Multiple releases this summer—including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and Google Gemini updates—have delivered incremental gains in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, sustaining the competitive race. Labs are iterating on agentic capabilities and larger context windows, though exact resolution hinges on whether any model crosses the market’s specific ELO target before year-end. Expect further announcements through fall developer conferences and potential surprise drops that could shift the leaderboard before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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