Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$102,350 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 1550
19%
↑ 1600
12%
↑ 1650
10%
↑ 1700
9%
$102,350 KL.
↑ 1550
$35,368 KL.
19%
↑ 1600
$20,526 KL.
12%
↑ 1650
$7,603 KL.
10%
↑ 1700
$5,097 KL.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$102,350Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$102,350Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp