Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June 2026 along with Opus 5 in July, have driven top Overall Arena scores into the low 1530s on the LMSYS/Arena leaderboard, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and xAI's Grok-4.6 close behind near 1510. Traders see sustained momentum from rapid iteration cycles, improved agentic capabilities, and longer context windows across frontier labs. With four months remaining until year-end, the pace of new model launches—often every few weeks—combined with ongoing benchmark gains in reasoning and coding tasks supports expectations for incremental Elo climbs. Key swing factors include whether Anthropic or OpenAI unveils a major update before December and any surprises from open-weight efforts or Google Gemini iterations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$141,736 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 1520
61%
↑ 1530
29%
↑ 1540
18%
↑ 1550
12%
↑ 1600
10%
↑ 1650
8%
↑ 1700
3%
$141,736 KL.
↑ 1520
$7,214 KL.
61%
↑ 1530
$6,985 KL.
29%
↑ 1540
$1,337 KL.
18%
↑ 1550
$48,924 KL.
12%
↑ 1600
$23,009 KL.
10%
↑ 1650
$8,600 KL.
8%
↑ 1700
$9,009 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June 2026 along with Opus 5 in July, have driven top Overall Arena scores into the low 1530s on the LMSYS/Arena leaderboard, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and xAI's Grok-4.6 close behind near 1510. Traders see sustained momentum from rapid iteration cycles, improved agentic capabilities, and longer context windows across frontier labs. With four months remaining until year-end, the pace of new model launches—often every few weeks—combined with ongoing benchmark gains in reasoning and coding tasks supports expectations for incremental Elo climbs. Key swing factors include whether Anthropic or OpenAI unveils a major update before December and any surprises from open-weight efforts or Google Gemini iterations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$141,736Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June 2026 along with Opus 5 in July, have driven top Overall Arena scores into the low 1530s on the LMSYS/Arena leaderboard, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and xAI's Grok-4.6 close behind near 1510. Traders see sustained momentum from rapid iteration cycles, improved agentic capabilities, and longer context windows across frontier labs. With four months remaining until year-end, the pace of new model launches—often every few weeks—combined with ongoing benchmark gains in reasoning and coding tasks supports expectations for incremental Elo climbs. Key swing factors include whether Anthropic or OpenAI unveils a major update before December and any surprises from open-weight efforts or Google Gemini iterations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$141,736Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 in June 2026 along with Opus 5 in July, have driven top Overall Arena scores into the low 1530s on the LMSYS/Arena leaderboard, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and xAI's Grok-4.6 close behind near 1510. Traders see sustained momentum from rapid iteration cycles, improved agentic capabilities, and longer context windows across frontier labs. With four months remaining until year-end, the pace of new model launches—often every few weeks—combined with ongoing benchmark gains in reasoning and coding tasks supports expectations for incremental Elo climbs. Key swing factors include whether Anthropic or OpenAI unveils a major update before December and any surprises from open-weight efforts or Google Gemini iterations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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