The 2026 Senate map features 22 Republican-held seats and 13 Democratic ones, with Cook Political Report listing six toss-ups (five Republican-held) and additional lean or likely contests in Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Michigan between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers, while broader Democratic generic ballot leads of roughly six points reflect midterm headwinds for the White House party. Candidate recruitment, primary outcomes clarifying fields in open seats, fundraising trends, and state-specific turnout patterns in battlegrounds remain central variables. Scheduled fall debates, economic releases, and any late shifts in national approval ratings could tighten or widen final margins in these races ahead of the November 3 contest.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich Senate races will be within 1%?
Which Senate races will be within 1%?
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
24%
Maine
22%
Texas
21%
Iowa
21%
Ohio (Special)
18%
Alaska
18%
New Hampshire
15%
Nebraska
14%
Minnesota
11%
Georgia
9%
North Carolina
9%
Florida (Special)
5%
Colorado
4%
New Mexico
3%
Montana
3%
Virginia
2%
$0.00 KL.
Michigan
$0 KL.
24%
Maine
$0 KL.
22%
Texas
$0 KL.
21%
Iowa
$0 KL.
21%
Ohio (Special)
$0 KL.
18%
Alaska
$0 KL.
18%
New Hampshire
$0 KL.
15%
Nebraska
$0 KL.
14%
Minnesota
$0 KL.
11%
Georgia
$0 KL.
9%
North Carolina
$0 KL.
9%
Florida (Special)
$0 KL.
5%
Colorado
$0 KL.
4%
New Mexico
$0 KL.
3%
Montana
$0 KL.
3%
Virginia
$0 KL.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Senate map features 22 Republican-held seats and 13 Democratic ones, with Cook Political Report listing six toss-ups (five Republican-held) and additional lean or likely contests in Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Michigan between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers, while broader Democratic generic ballot leads of roughly six points reflect midterm headwinds for the White House party. Candidate recruitment, primary outcomes clarifying fields in open seats, fundraising trends, and state-specific turnout patterns in battlegrounds remain central variables. Scheduled fall debates, economic releases, and any late shifts in national approval ratings could tighten or widen final margins in these races ahead of the November 3 contest.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Senate map features 22 Republican-held seats and 13 Democratic ones, with Cook Political Report listing six toss-ups (five Republican-held) and additional lean or likely contests in Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Michigan between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers, while broader Democratic generic ballot leads of roughly six points reflect midterm headwinds for the White House party. Candidate recruitment, primary outcomes clarifying fields in open seats, fundraising trends, and state-specific turnout patterns in battlegrounds remain central variables. Scheduled fall debates, economic releases, and any late shifts in national approval ratings could tighten or widen final margins in these races ahead of the November 3 contest.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Senate map features 22 Republican-held seats and 13 Democratic ones, with Cook Political Report listing six toss-ups (five Republican-held) and additional lean or likely contests in Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Michigan between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers, while broader Democratic generic ballot leads of roughly six points reflect midterm headwinds for the White House party. Candidate recruitment, primary outcomes clarifying fields in open seats, fundraising trends, and state-specific turnout patterns in battlegrounds remain central variables. Scheduled fall debates, economic releases, and any late shifts in national approval ratings could tighten or widen final margins in these races ahead of the November 3 contest.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp