**Recent national polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 7–8 points amid low presidential approval tied to economic pressures and foreign policy developments, creating a favorable environment for competitive Senate contests.** This dynamic has tightened several Republican-held seats, with Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio (special), New Hampshire, Maine, and Iowa frequently polling within or near 5 points based on aggregates from sources like RealClearPolitics and individual surveys through mid-September 2026. Key factors include strong Democratic nominees in open or vulnerable races—such as former Governor Roy Cooper in North Carolina, former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and state Rep. James Talarico in Texas—alongside Republican incumbents or nominees facing headwinds in battlegrounds. Primaries wrapped recently, solidifying matchups, while early voting and the final weeks before November 3 could shift margins through turnout and late developments. Trader focus on races within 5% reflects these narrow polling spreads and the path to Senate control, which hinges on a handful of toss-ups.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich Senate races will be within 5%?
Which Senate races will be within 5%?
$65,174 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
83%
Alaska
71%
Iowa
69%
Kansas
64%
Ohio (Special)
56%
Michigan
53%
Nebraska
45%
New Hampshire
41%
South Carolina
42%
North Carolina
28%
Florida (Special)
25%
Maine
47%
Minnesota
23%
Georgia
20%
New Mexico
13%
Montana
11%
Colorado
4%
Virginia
3%
$65,174 KL.
Texas
$7,142 KL.
83%
Alaska
$2,789 KL.
71%
Iowa
$5,840 KL.
69%
Kansas
$571 KL.
64%
Ohio (Special)
$3,967 KL.
56%
Michigan
$3,002 KL.
53%
Nebraska
$3,719 KL.
45%
New Hampshire
$2,422 KL.
41%
South Carolina
$109 KL.
42%
North Carolina
$5,817 KL.
28%
Florida (Special)
$2,450 KL.
25%
Maine
$1,119 KL.
47%
Minnesota
$10,369 KL.
23%
Georgia
$2,057 KL.
20%
New Mexico
$6,665 KL.
13%
Montana
$3,190 KL.
11%
Colorado
$2,599 KL.
4%
Virginia
$1,344 KL.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent national polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 7–8 points amid low presidential approval tied to economic pressures and foreign policy developments, creating a favorable environment for competitive Senate contests.** This dynamic has tightened several Republican-held seats, with Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio (special), New Hampshire, Maine, and Iowa frequently polling within or near 5 points based on aggregates from sources like RealClearPolitics and individual surveys through mid-September 2026. Key factors include strong Democratic nominees in open or vulnerable races—such as former Governor Roy Cooper in North Carolina, former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and state Rep. James Talarico in Texas—alongside Republican incumbents or nominees facing headwinds in battlegrounds. Primaries wrapped recently, solidifying matchups, while early voting and the final weeks before November 3 could shift margins through turnout and late developments. Trader focus on races within 5% reflects these narrow polling spreads and the path to Senate control, which hinges on a handful of toss-ups.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$65,174Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent national polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 7–8 points amid low presidential approval tied to economic pressures and foreign policy developments, creating a favorable environment for competitive Senate contests.** This dynamic has tightened several Republican-held seats, with Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio (special), New Hampshire, Maine, and Iowa frequently polling within or near 5 points based on aggregates from sources like RealClearPolitics and individual surveys through mid-September 2026. Key factors include strong Democratic nominees in open or vulnerable races—such as former Governor Roy Cooper in North Carolina, former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and state Rep. James Talarico in Texas—alongside Republican incumbents or nominees facing headwinds in battlegrounds. Primaries wrapped recently, solidifying matchups, while early voting and the final weeks before November 3 could shift margins through turnout and late developments. Trader focus on races within 5% reflects these narrow polling spreads and the path to Senate control, which hinges on a handful of toss-ups.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$65,174Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**Recent national polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 7–8 points amid low presidential approval tied to economic pressures and foreign policy developments, creating a favorable environment for competitive Senate contests.** This dynamic has tightened several Republican-held seats, with Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio (special), New Hampshire, Maine, and Iowa frequently polling within or near 5 points based on aggregates from sources like RealClearPolitics and individual surveys through mid-September 2026. Key factors include strong Democratic nominees in open or vulnerable races—such as former Governor Roy Cooper in North Carolina, former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and state Rep. James Talarico in Texas—alongside Republican incumbents or nominees facing headwinds in battlegrounds. Primaries wrapped recently, solidifying matchups, while early voting and the final weeks before November 3 could shift margins through turnout and late developments. Trader focus on races within 5% reflects these narrow polling spreads and the path to Senate control, which hinges on a handful of toss-ups.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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