Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, including a naval blockade and limited exchanges since February 2026, have not produced signs of imminent ground operations. Recent statements from President Trump emphasize economic pressure and stalled diplomacy over major escalation, with officials describing renewed large-scale strikes as unlikely in the near term following the November midterms. Iranian missile and drone activity continues at low intensity, but U.S. force posture focuses on containment rather than invasion preparation. With only weeks remaining before 2027 and no mobilization of ground forces for occupation, trader consensus reflects the substantial logistical, political, and international barriers to launching a full invasion before the deadline.