Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, focused on Tehran's nuclear program and sanctions relief, have sustained the trader consensus reflected in the 68.5% probability for no invasion before 2027. President Trump has prioritized a deal through indirect talks mediated by Oman and Pakistan, rejecting Iranian counteroffers while maintaining a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and targeted airstrikes on military and energy targets. These limited operations, now in their third month, align with Pentagon planning that favors special operations and air campaigns over ground forces to establish territorial control. Public polling indicates broad skepticism toward deeper military commitments, and upcoming negotiation deadlines within the next 60 days could further shape outcomes without triggering a full-scale offensive.