High historical conversion rates for in-game penalties drive the 79% implied probability that the first spot-kick of the 2026 World Cup will be made. World Cup data since 1978 shows open-play penalties converted at 79.1%, reflecting strong shooter confidence, goalkeeper positioning challenges, and consistent execution under match conditions rather than shootout pressure. The tournament opener and early group-stage fixtures favor regular-time awards over extra-time or shootout scenarios, where success dips toward 69-74%. No widespread pre-tournament injuries to elite takers or major rule changes alter this baseline, leaving recent form and matchup dynamics secondary to the long-term statistical edge. Trader consensus aligns closely with these verified patterns from prior editions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMade
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 20, 2026
Made
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 20, 2026
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
High historical conversion rates for in-game penalties drive the 79% implied probability that the first spot-kick of the 2026 World Cup will be made. World Cup data since 1978 shows open-play penalties converted at 79.1%, reflecting strong shooter confidence, goalkeeper positioning challenges, and consistent execution under match conditions rather than shootout pressure. The tournament opener and early group-stage fixtures favor regular-time awards over extra-time or shootout scenarios, where success dips toward 69-74%. No widespread pre-tournament injuries to elite takers or major rule changes alter this baseline, leaving recent form and matchup dynamics secondary to the long-term statistical edge. Trader consensus aligns closely with these verified patterns from prior editions.
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6,124Ngày kết thúc
Jul 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
High historical conversion rates for in-game penalties drive the 79% implied probability that the first spot-kick of the 2026 World Cup will be made. World Cup data since 1978 shows open-play penalties converted at 79.1%, reflecting strong shooter confidence, goalkeeper positioning challenges, and consistent execution under match conditions rather than shootout pressure. The tournament opener and early group-stage fixtures favor regular-time awards over extra-time or shootout scenarios, where success dips toward 69-74%. No widespread pre-tournament injuries to elite takers or major rule changes alter this baseline, leaving recent form and matchup dynamics secondary to the long-term statistical edge. Trader consensus aligns closely with these verified patterns from prior editions.
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$6,124Ngày kết thúc
Jul 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...High historical conversion rates for in-game penalties drive the 79% implied probability that the first spot-kick of the 2026 World Cup will be made. World Cup data since 1978 shows open-play penalties converted at 79.1%, reflecting strong shooter confidence, goalkeeper positioning challenges, and consistent execution under match conditions rather than shootout pressure. The tournament opener and early group-stage fixtures favor regular-time awards over extra-time or shootout scenarios, where success dips toward 69-74%. No widespread pre-tournament injuries to elite takers or major rule changes alter this baseline, leaving recent form and matchup dynamics secondary to the long-term statistical edge. Trader consensus aligns closely with these verified patterns from prior editions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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