Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" in the 2026 House popular vote margin, reflecting substantial uncertainty more than five months before the election when few candidates have been finalized and early polling remains sparse. Historical midterm patterns show the opposition party often gains ground, yet current economic indicators, legislative priorities in Congress, and candidate recruitment efforts continue to shape assessments of turnout and swing-district performance. With no single margin exceeding 16 percent probability, market pricing captures the potential for late shifts driven by national events or voter mobilization in battleground areas.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於民主黨 8-10% 16%
民主黨 10-12% 13%
民主黨 6-8% 10%
共和黨 0-2% 9.3%
$34,974 交易量
$34,974 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨 16%+
3%
民主黨 14-16%
4%
民主黨 12-14%
4%
民主黨 10-12%
13%
民主黨 8-10%
16%
民主黨 6-8%
10%
民主黨 4-6%
7%
民主黨 2-4%
4%
民主黨 0-2%
5%
共和黨 0-2%
9%
共和黨2-4%
8%
共和黨4-6%
2%
共和黨6%以上
3%
民主黨 8-10% 16%
民主黨 10-12% 13%
民主黨 6-8% 10%
共和黨 0-2% 9.3%
$34,974 交易量
$34,974 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨 16%+
$804 交易量
3%
民主黨 14-16%
$476 交易量
4%
民主黨 12-14%
$462 交易量
4%
民主黨 10-12%
$830 交易量
13%
民主黨 8-10%
$1,555 交易量
16%
民主黨 6-8%
$693 交易量
10%
民主黨 4-6%
$258 交易量
7%
民主黨 2-4%
$1,012 交易量
4%
民主黨 0-2%
$889 交易量
5%
共和黨 0-2%
$919 交易量
9%
共和黨2-4%
$26,044 交易量
8%
共和黨4-6%
$250 交易量
2%
共和黨6%以上
$782 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" in the 2026 House popular vote margin, reflecting substantial uncertainty more than five months before the election when few candidates have been finalized and early polling remains sparse. Historical midterm patterns show the opposition party often gains ground, yet current economic indicators, legislative priorities in Congress, and candidate recruitment efforts continue to shape assessments of turnout and swing-district performance. With no single margin exceeding 16 percent probability, market pricing captures the potential for late shifts driven by national events or voter mobilization in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
市場開放時間： Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$34,974結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" in the 2026 House popular vote margin, reflecting substantial uncertainty more than five months before the election when few candidates have been finalized and early polling remains sparse. Historical midterm patterns show the opposition party often gains ground, yet current economic indicators, legislative priorities in Congress, and candidate recruitment efforts continue to shape assessments of turnout and swing-district performance. With no single margin exceeding 16 percent probability, market pricing captures the potential for late shifts driven by national events or voter mobilization in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
交易量
$34,974結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" in the 2026 House popular vote margin, reflecting substantial uncertainty more than five months before the election when few candidates have been finalized and early polling remains sparse. Historical midterm patterns show the opposition party often gains ground, yet current economic indicators, legislative priorities in Congress, and candidate recruitment efforts continue to shape assessments of turnout and swing-district performance. With no single margin exceeding 16 percent probability, market pricing captures the potential for late shifts driven by national events or voter mobilization in battleground areas.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions